Last week, the levels of 24482 on the upside and 23829 on the downside were seen as the key levels on a closing basis. Last Monday, Nifty closed at 24430, and although it reached up to 24530 the very next morning, it managed to close only at 24398. The following day, as the Iran-US conflict escalated into heavy attacks and oil prices surged to the 79 mark, the market faced heavy selling pressure. It touched 23805 at one point but eventually closed at 23882. Although both key upper and lower levels were breached within a single day’s difference, both sides failed to decisively sustain those breakouts. Later, Nifty closed at 23962 on Thursday and 24207 on Friday. By Friday, Brent crude had also cooled off slightly to the 76.40 level.
The sectors that delivered the best performance last week were IT, Real Estate, Pharma, and Banking. A strong upward momentum was generally evident in midcap stocks as well. The Q1 financial results, which kicked off with TCS’s earnings, will largely dictate the primary trajectory of individual stocks in the coming days. What will impact the broader index is how oil prices behave in the coming days, along with India’s Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data releasing on Monday (expected at 4%) and the US CPI data coming out on Tuesday (4.2%). These are drawing significant attention as they will influence upcoming Reserve Bank policy decisions and interest rates. Additionally, China is announcing its GDP growth rate on Wednesday. This needs to be closely monitored as it will impact base metal prices.
As noted last week, crude crossed the resistance levels of 73.47-74.50 and rallied toward the 80 mark. Following that, it has pulled back and currently stands at the 76.40 level. The 75.50-73.75 levels will act as highly crucial supports for Brent crude in the coming days. If Brent crude does not close below this zone, it indicates preparations for another upward surge. The next level to watch out for would be 82.40. If that is also crossed, the next leap would be toward the final resistance zone between 90.25 and 91.15. Conversely, if the aforementioned 75.50-73.75 supports are broken, it will signal a continuation of crude’s decline, eventually leading Brent crude down to near the 56 level. There are also rumors in the market that the war will intensify once the World Cup final concludes.
Nifty closed at the 24206 level last week. Although the market is signaling that the bulls are preparing for an upward rally, the numerous factors mentioned above are lined up to control the market’s direction. For Nifty, the immediate resistance line is seen at the 24602 level, and above that at 24760. Looking downward, the supports are placed at the 23925-23785 levels. The widening distance between the supports and resistances could also be a clear indicator of upcoming volatility—fasten your seatbelts.