In our previous analysis, we highlighted that if Nifty could hold its initial support at 25,410 and close above the first resistance zone of 25,750–25,885, it would open up fresh opportunities for the bulls. We also cautioned that consistently closing below 25,693 on a weekly basis was a bearish signal, and that rising crude oil prices required close monitoring.
Although Nifty recorded a high of 25,771 on Monday, it failed to sustain and close above the 25,750 mark. It subsequently closed at 25,424 the following day and hovered near 25,490 for the next two sessions. On Friday, witnessing a sharp and continuous sell-off down to 25,141, the index eventually settled at 25,471.
Let’s look at what investors can expect in the coming days across key assets and indices.
The Geopolitical Overhang
The escalating conflict involving the US-Israel alliance and Iran has understandably created a deep sense of apprehension among Indian investors. With a significant portion of the Indian diaspora based in the Middle East—across Dubai, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Abu Dhabi—this conflict hits much closer to home. We cannot watch this unfold with the same detachment as the Russia-Ukraine or Pakistan-Afghanistan conflicts; the emotional and economic proximity is simply too great.
When the markets open on Monday, they will likely price in these fears and uncertainties. In such volatile times, my primary advice is to handle your portfolio with absolute restraint, patience, and a long-term perspective.
Market direction in the near term will hinge heavily on retaliatory measures from Iran, the potential of the IRGC taking tighter administrative control, and the strategic maneuvers of allies like China and Russia.
Commodities to Watch
The trajectory of oil and precious metals will be crucial for the Indian market this week:
- Crude Oil (MCX): After recording a low of 5,800 and a high of 6,189 last week, crude closed at 6,092. If prices manage a closing breakout above the 6,188 level, it signals a potential surge toward the 7,235–7,857 trajectory.
- Gold: The yellow metal closed at 5,267 last week. If geopolitical tensions point to a prolonged conflict, international gold prices could rally toward the 5,963–6,314 levels. Immediate support currently rests at 5,111.
- Silver: Closing at 94.36, silver faces an immediate resistance zone at 95.70. A breakout above this level shifts the focus to previous targets that now act as resistance: 102.56 and 115.85. The 115.85 mark is highly critical on a closing basis; crossing it could unlock higher targets at 128.83, 137.68, and 147.82.
Key Technical Levels for Indices
The fact that Nifty closed last week after surrendering its key supports suggests a deeper correction, potentially toward the 24,850 level.
- Nifty 50: The major defensive lines are currently situated lower. The 24,571–24,404 zone will serve as heavy support. If the correction halts here, it will be a strong testament to the underlying strength of the bulls. On the upside, Nifty must cross and sustain above the 25,370–25,693 supply zone to resume its upward journey.
- Bank Nifty: The banking index closed at 60,529 last week. It currently enjoys excellent structural support in the 58,700 zone.
- Nifty IT: Battered by recent AI-related apprehensions, the IT index is trading perilously close to its major structural support levels of 29,401 / 28,529 / 28,483.
Macro-Economic Triggers
On a positive note, the new GDP figures released last week reaffirm that India’s core economic engine is growing stronger. Looking ahead, alongside the domestic Auto Sales and Services PMI data, global markets will be keeping a close watch on the upcoming US unemployment rate and Eurozone inflation figures.