Last week, we noted that the primary focus should be on the initial support at 24850 and the strong support range between 24571–24404, with 25370–25693 acting as the overhead resistance zone. Despite a sharp 850-point gap-down and sell-off in the first two days compared to the previous week’s close, the market successfully defended the 24404 support on a closing basis. The bulls displayed noticeable resilience across multiple trading sessions.
Key Global & Domestic Cues to Watch
In the coming days, global markets will be laser-focused on oil price trajectories and further developments regarding the Middle East conflict. Other major market-moving data points include:
US Inflation Data (CPI): Releasing on Wednesday, this will heavily influence global equities. The entire world is awaiting this data to gauge the probability of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.
US Producer Price Index (PPI): Wholesale inflation data will also be released this week, which will dictate the immediate directional bias of US markets.
Domestic Data (India): On Thursday, the Indian markets will react to the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation numbers along with the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). Given that the recent GDP numbers were positive, this industrial growth metric is critical for sustaining market momentum.
Commodities & Currency Outlook
Crude Oil: Closed at 8363 last week. The previously anticipated move toward the 7235–7857 zone has materialized. The 7857 level will now act as a bedrock support; we should only expect further weakness if it closes below this mark. Upside targets for crude are positioned at 10826, 11521, and 12030.
Gold & Silver: Gold closed at 5158. The resistance band at 5192–5311 and the immediate support at 5136 will provide directional cues in the coming days. Silver failed to breach the anticipated resistance at 95.69 and slipped to close at 84.30. The crucial downside support rests at 75.24; a close below this level will open the doors for a steeper decline.
Dollar Index (DXY) & INR: The DXY closed at 98.85. Further upside is constrained unless it takes out the 99.35 resistance. Staying below 99.35 is highly favorable for emerging markets like India. The immediate downside support is 97.03. Meanwhile, the Indian Rupee exhibited further weakness. Currently at 91.85, the INR has opened up the possibility of plunging toward the 94.10 mark. As long as the currency does not close below the 91.03–90.14 support zones, the probability of further depreciation remains highly active.
US Market Structural Vulnerability
An analysis of the US markets reveals significant technical damage:
Dow Jones: The index once again closed below the 48300 mark. Sustaining a close below this level exposes the index to a potential deep drawdown toward 38775, with an intermediate support positioned at 45728.
S&P 500: The broader index closed at 6740. While there are immediate supports at 6517 and 6348, a failure to reclaim the overhead resistance at 6944 could trigger a severe correction down to the 5218 level.
Macro Risk: The next major crisis facing the US economy could be a liquidity crunch within private equity funds, the early symptoms of which are already surfacing. Currently, the US market appears to be the most highly susceptible to a deep structural correction globally.
Nifty 50: Technical Trajectory
Nifty’s weakness was initiated the moment it struggled to cross the 25693 mark on a weekly closing basis. The index is now testing critical lower support zones.
Support Defenses: As long as the initial support zone of 24164–23935 and the subsequent bedrock support at 23750 are defended, the broader trend will remain structurally in favor of the bulls.
Relief Rally Triggers: Nifty is currently closed at 24450. If the index manages to decisively breach and close above the 24571–24626 supply zone in the upcoming sessions, it could trigger a swift relief rally toward the 24982–25444 levels.