Last week, the initial major resistance line observed was the 24438 level, and the subsequent key resistance lines to watch were 24529-24601-24760-24854. The support to watch on the downside was given as 24295. Last week, 24427 was the lowest level, and 24774 was the highest level. The newly introduced closing auction system to determine the closing level caused a great deal of confusion in the initial days and led to massive volatility in Nifty, but the most important highlight of last week was that it later improved, and traders began adapting to it. We have experienced such issues during every transition, be it when online trading started or when the pre-market open system was introduced, and we have overcome all of them. We can believe that the same will happen here as well. Let me add that the highest level of 24774 was also a high resulting from a glitch in the new CAS system. Although the Reserve Bank kept interest rates unchanged last week, giving indications that a situation to raise them might arise in the next quarter, taking a balanced approach between growth and inflation is considered a good move for the stock market. Another highlight of last week was that the selling pressure from foreign investors decreased, and they increased their buying. This week, inflation, IIP data, and the Morgan Stanley index review will be the main focus. Now, let’s examine the levels to watch in Nifty and some other major indices in the coming days.
Regarding Nifty, which closed at the 24570 level last week, the first resistance line to watch on the higher side is at 24616. Above this, the 24773 resistance line, the previously mentioned 24960 target, and the next resistance line at 25477 above that are to be watched. Looking downwards, the first support to watch is at the 24498 level. If it closes and sustains below this, a correction can be expected, with the next supports at 24277 and 23954 respectively. If these are also lost, it can continue towards the longer-term supports of 23783 and 23606 levels. Among the major indices, Auto, Consumption, Pharma, and Realty are leading the bullish momentum, while the Services sector and IT sector are among those preparing to enter a fresh bullish trend. Among these, the Auto index is currently at 29647, very close to its nearest target of 29898. Upon closing above this target, the goals of 30378 and 33534 will be opened up. The Consumption sector index, from 12197, is targeting the levels of 12373-12447-13342. Although the Pharma index has reached 26541 in a minor technical correction after hitting the target of 26745, the trend remains bullish; 26122 is the nearest support zone. The Realty index is at 886 in a correction from the very crucial resistance zone of 909.67. If it manages to cross the 909.67 resistance, it will journey towards the targets of 1008 and 1046, but if it fails to cross the said resistance zone, it may slide into a correction down to the 819 level. Now, let’s examine the Services and IT sectors attempting to cross into a bullish trend. The Services sector, at 31265, needs to maintain support at 30642; 32809 is its nearest target. The IT sector, which stands at 31547, is making a comeback from a point where it was heavily out of favor. For the IT index, which has reached here from the 25700 level, the support to maintain for further advancement is within the 29369-29356 zone. If this is achieved, the next target is 33396, and the subsequent resistance zone ahead is at 36226. If these are surpassed, a massive bullish trend awaits the IT sector; a prolonged bull rally that could stretch up to 66804 awaits this sector later. Certainly, the important thing is being able to cross the obstacles ahead.
Gold has started attempting an excellent comeback last week; it closed at the $4354 level in the international market last week. If it manages to cross the major hurdle of 4422, Gold will enter a bull trend, with the next nearest target being 4654. However, if it fails to cross 4422, the correction towards the previously mentioned 3482 level will continue. Silver closed at 63.80 last week, crossing the 60.87 hurdle; the 69.05 – 75.24 levels are the next obstacles. The Dollar Index closed at 99.63; the next supports to watch are the 99.38-97.20 levels, while the resistance zone remains at 101.43. The Rupee closed at 95.24 last week; 94.75 is the next support to watch, and sustaining below this might result in a move where the Rupee strengthens up to 81.40. Brent Crude closed at 82.21 in the international market last week, just below the very crucial resistance zone of 82.38. If it crosses and closes above this, the 90.15 – 91.15 resistance zone will be tested; if it fails to close and sustain above 82.38, the 75.94 support and 73.75 support will be tested next. Nasdaq closed at the 26690 level last week, just below the very crucial strict boundary of 27206. It is noteworthy that if it fails to cross this, a heavy crash awaits Nasdaq, but if it crosses this, the next upward rally could continue. S&P 500 closed at 7757, and the major support to watch here is at 7426. If this is maintained, the subsequent move will be towards the targets of 8268-8924.