Last week, 23783 was seen as the initial support, while on the upside, 24120 and the 24209-24436 levels above it were viewed as resistance zones. Along with this, it was indicated that the market would no longer fear crude oil significantly and would instead treat it as a new normal. Last week, the Nifty only dipped to 23796; after reaching 24334 in the initial days, it closed the week at 23997. It was only on the final day that it reached very close to the 23783 support level. Notably, despite the US-Iran conflict escalating and crude surging to trade near 115, there was no major crash in the market. The Rupee crossing and sustaining above the 95 mark against the Dollar was another negative move in the market last week. The past week also witnessed a heavy decline in major Nifty sectors like IT and Bank Nifty. Sectors like Media, Pharma, Public Sector, Metals, Infra, and Energy held their ground alongside the bulls. However, over the past two weeks, the market has also shown signs of Public Sector Banks slowly moving in favor of the bears. Let’s look at what to expect in the coming days.
The Nifty closed at the 23997 level last week. The first support to watch out for on the downside this week is 23884. Losing this will certainly be a sign of bears gaining strength. Following that, the 23700-23555 supports will be the ones to watch. Below this, a severe fall down to the 22930-22720 levels might be seen in the market. These are the possibilities on the downside. Now let’s look at the upside possibilities. The 24096-24188-24260 levels are the resistance lines to watch out for on the upside in the coming days. Crossing and closing above these will make the bulls slightly stronger. Nevertheless, with resistance lines at the 24600-24703-24854 levels right above, the journey forward won’t be very comfortable for the bulls.
It is highly likely that the index will continue its sideways corrective trend in the market. Therefore, maintaining a stock-specific and sector-specific approach will be the most desirable strategy. The Rupee closed at 95.11 against the Dollar last week. Now, only the very crucial resistance zone of 95.67 lies ahead. If it crosses and closes above this, the Rupee will then target the 97.86-99.68 levels. However, if it fails to breach 95.67 and sustains below it, a pullback towards 94.08-92.73 can be expected. This week, along with the importance of corporate results, the outcome of the state elections completed last month will also influence the market’s direction.