As indicated last week, closing above the 24,123 level would open up a favorable scenario for the bulls, while closing below 23,817 would favor the bears. Throughout the week, the daily market closings remained confined within these two levels. Aside from the first two days—where the market closed very close to these thresholds at 24,103 and 23,824, respectively—it remained elusive without giving a clear directional grip to anyone. Another notable highlight was that it was a week of rather peculiar movements across global markets.
Last week, the Reserve Bank Governor ruled out the possibility of a rate hike. However, the inflation projection for FY27 was raised from 4.6% to 5.25%, and GDP growth estimates were reduced from 6.9% to 6.6%. The market factored this in with the anticipation that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period. This was evident as market interest visibly shifted away from rate-sensitive stocks and toward frontline companies with strong balance sheets and pricing power.
We also saw oil prices breaking crucial support levels one by one and trending downwards on the belief that the war had ended. Brent crude closed at 72.60 last week. In the coming days, the upside resistance zones to watch are 73.48 and 75.47. If it fails to break and close above these, it indicates oil could head toward the next support at 56.34.
Gold closed at the 4,096 level last week. The previous support of 4,422 now acts as a resistance zone. If it fails to break and close above this, the immediate support will be at 3,930. Losing this mark would signal a further move toward the 3,477 level for gold. Silver closed at 59.22 last week, and 60.87 will be the first upside resistance zone to watch in the days ahead. The Dollar Index showed signs of regaining momentum last week; crossing the immediate resistance zone of 101.43 – 101.58 will signal that the dollar is strengthening further.
Nifty closed at the 24,056 level last week. In the coming days, the upside resistance to watch is at 24,175, and if it manages to close above this, the next resistance zone will be between 24,284 and 24,482. On the downside, the immediate support to monitor is at 23,930. If it falls below the subsequent support of 23,784, it will indicate a downward move toward the 23,300 – 23,070 levels.