Last week, the bulls needed to hold the support at 22,961, which they successfully did, advancing up to 23,862. However, as the situation on the war front worsened and crude oil surged out of control, the Nifty returned to the 23,000 level, closing at 23,114. As the war drags on week after week, the devastation it brings to the world is immense. This reality is accurately reflecting in the market. Let’s examine the crucial levels to watch in the coming days.
First, let’s look at Brent Crude, which is heavily influencing the market right now. Brent closed last week at 112.50. The immediate major resistance zone is at 115.95. Closing above this level will signal the next upward move for crude. The subsequent targets would be the 119.50, 143, 156, and 180 levels. It must be noted that such a move would severely disrupt the global economy, which will undoubtedly reflect in our stock market. On the other hand, if it fails to close above 115.95 and moves downward, the support ranges to watch are 99.54 and 91.15. Only if the second level is breached will the current bullish trend in Brent reverse. Next, we need to examine the Dollar Index Futures. It closed last week at 99.46. Maintaining the 99.37 level on a closing basis at the end of the week keeps the market anxiety alive. However, the Dollar Index will only turn bullish if it manages to cross and close above the 100.89 – 101.43 levels. It would then move towards the first target of 104.17. Such a move would serve as a negative indicator for emerging markets, including India. Therefore, for the bulls, it is highly desirable for the Dollar Index Futures to stay below the 99.37 level. The Rupee reached 93.61 last week. It is now very close to the 94.03 – 94.10 target mentioned last December. Once this target is reached, it is crucial to observe if this level is sustained; if it fails to hold, a scenario for a significant correction will emerge.
Gold and Silver, which were the stars of 2025, are facing fairly heavy selling pressure in this final quarter of the year. Comex Gold closed last week at 4488. The 4422 mark is a very crucial support zone for Gold. Closing and sustaining below this will be a sign of the next breakdown, with a correction down to 3483 awaiting Gold thereafter. The upward resistance zones are 4646 and 4764. Silver has proven to be the “early bird” in this downward journey! Unable to cross and sustain above the 95.70 resistance zone mentioned earlier this month, Silver made its first move down to the 75.36 support. After a failed attempt to bounce back, it broke that support last week and closed at 69.6. The 75.36 level is now likely to act as a resistance zone, opening up the possibility for the price to drop further to the 63.90 – 60.87 levels. The US Fed maintaining interest rates without cuts last week led to a stronger dollar, which consequently reduced the demand for both Gold and Silver.
Now, let’s move to the Nifty. The 22,982 – 22,955 level is the first major downside support in the coming days. If the market closes below this in the upcoming sessions, it indicates the beginning of a slide towards the 22,634 – 22,254 – 21,930 levels, or even the 21,743 – 21,710 – 20,729 levels. However, if the 22,955 level is held on a closing basis, the next metric to watch is whether it can close above 23,288. If so, an upward move up to the 24,058 – 24,303 levels can be expected as a relief rally. The movements of major sectoral indices like IT and Banking will be key to watch. Bank Nifty closed last week at 53,427, right next to the 53,258 support. If this is maintained, an advance to the 57,000 – 58,350 levels is possible. But if it fails to hold, the supports at 50,426 – 49,156 – 48,547 will need to be closely monitored. The Nifty IT Index is currently hovering around the 28,529 – 29,351 levels mentioned in the first week of last February, closing last week at 29,199. If it manages to hold 28,529 on a closing basis and close above 29,351, a return to the 36,255 level can be expected. However, if the aforementioned support breaks, the journey will continue downwards to the 23,994 – 23,044 levels.
Alongside the geopolitical developments on the war front, other economic events likely to influence the market this week include the release of PMI data from the Eurozone, Inflation data from the UK and Australia, and US GDP data.
Investors should note that panic selling triggered by external events like wars often causes steep price crashes in the markets, but indices usually bounce back to new highs within a very short period. Therefore, such opportunities should be utilized to increase investments, or to switch from poor-quality stocks—even if it means booking a loss—into excellent, undervalued businesses that can serve as robust anchors for your core portfolio. It is important to realize that steep corrections are often the only way to get favorable entry points into top-tier companies.